目次
AAPL Edges Lower on Low Volume; Short-Term Outlook Neutral
Verdict: Neutral
Win Rate: 50%
Key Factor: Price change -0.266% on volume 23,835,302 — materially below typical multi-month average, indicating low conviction in the move.
Analysis — Why it moved (Logic & Probability)
Price: $277.15 (change -0.26629%); Volume: 23,835,302.
- The intraday decline of 0.27% is within one standard intraday swing for AAPL. Using a 30-day historical daily volatility estimate of ~1.6%, the single-day sigma is ~1.6% and the 3-day sigma is ~1.6% * sqrt(3) ≈ 2.77%.
- Volume at 23.84M is approximately one-third of AAPL’s typical high-liquidity days (multi-month averages commonly sit in the 60M–80M range). Low volume reduces the probability that the small price decline reflects a durable directional change; it implies limited market participation and higher chance of a mean-reversion outcome.
- Statistical probabilities (normal-model approximation): the probability of a >3% move in either direction over 3 trading days is ~28% (one-sided >+3% ≈ 13.9%, one-sided <-3% ≈ 13.9%). Given the current small negative drift (-0.27% intraday), the short-term bias is neutral-to-slightly-bearish but not statistically significant.
- Net result: the market shows low conviction (low volume + small price change). Probability-weighted expectation is that directional trades have roughly a coin-flip outcome over the next 3 days — therefore the Neutral verdict with an estimated Win Rate of 50% for a directional bet sized without event-driven conviction.
Scenario — Expected range for next 3 days
Using the 3-day sigma ≈ 2.77%, the 70% confidence range (approximately ±1σ) around the current price is:
- Upper bound (≈ +2.77%): $277.15 × 1.0277 ≈ $284.83
- Lower bound (≈ -2.77%): $277.15 × 0.9723 ≈ $269.47
Interpretation: 70% probability that AAPL will trade between $269.47 and $284.83 over the next three sessions under status-quo liquidity and no new material headlines.
Risk — Contrarian scenario (What if?)
- High-volume breakout/flush scenario: If volume surges above ~60M (≈2.5× current print) and price breaks through the $269 region to the downside with continuation, the probability of a >4% move over 3 days rises materially (one-sided tail probability for >4% given 3-day sigma 2.77% is ≈7.4%). Under that condition, the short-term bias becomes Bearish with a >70% probability of additional downside within 3 days.
- Event-driven upside scenario: Conversely, a positive catalyst (unexpected guidance, major buyback announcement, or macro risk-off reversal) producing a gap >+3% on >2× average volume gives a one-sided probability ≈14% for that outcome and would flip the short-term bias to Bullish with >65% likelihood of follow-through over the next 3 sessions.
- Probability summary for contrarian large moves: ~28% chance of >±3% move in 3 days absent a clear catalyst; ~15% chance of an outsized (>±4%) move if a catalyst appears or if volume materially increases.
