【Market Alert】$AMZN Analysis (2025-12-09)

AMZN Drops 1.15% on Thin Volume; Short‑Term Bias Neutral

Analysis — Why it moved (Logic & Probability)

Price moved down 1.15018% to $226.89 while reported volume (7,056) is light in absolute terms for a large‑cap name, indicating low participation behind the sell move. The magnitude of the decline is modest and insufficient to establish strong directional conviction when decoupled from meaningful volume. Probability assessment based on magnitude and participation:

• 60% probability of a neutral, rangebound outcome over the next 3 trading days (limited follow‑through given thin volume).
• 25% probability of continued downside (>1.5% cumulative decline over next 3 days) if volume picks up materially on selling.
• 15% probability of an upside bounce (>1.5% cumulative gain over next 3 days) if buyers enter at current levels with increased volume.

Scenario — Expected range for next 3 days

Assumptions: use a conservative short‑term daily volatility estimate of 1.5% (today’s move ~1.15% supports this order of magnitude). Aggregate 3‑day standard deviation = 1.5% * √3 ≈ 2.60%.

• 1σ (≈68% probability) projected trading range: $221.00 — $232.78.
• 2σ (≈95% probability) projected trading range: $215.10 — $238.69.
• Key intraday reference levels: support ≈ $221; resistance ≈ $233. A close outside the 1σ band increases the probability of follow‑through.

Risk — Contrarian scenario (What if?)

• If volume expands to >3× current (volume > 21,168) and price breaks decisively below the 1σ lower bound (close < $221), probability shifts toward Bearish; expect accelerated downside toward the 2σ lower bound (~$215) with >60% conditional probability.
• If volume expands to >3× current and price closes above the 1σ upper bound (close > $232.78), probability shifts toward Bullish; expect testing of the 2σ upper bound (~$238.69) with >55% conditional probability.
• Absent a volume expansion signal, the Neutral verdict retains the highest probability — trades are best managed with tight risk controls and acknowledgment that large moves require a volume confirmation trigger.