AMZN Jumps 1.69% on Strong Intraday Momentum — Short-Term Bullish Bias
Verdict: Bullish
Win Rate: 62%
Key Factor: Positive price momentum (+1.69358%) on a trade volume of 29,863,852 indicating constructive short-term demand.
Analysis — Why it moved (Logic & Probability)
Price increased to $231.78 (+1.69358%) on volume of 29,863,852 shares. The magnitude of the advance combined with above-normal intraday participation establishes short-term buying pressure. Using a one-day volatility proxy of ~1.8%, the three-day volatility estimate is sqrt(3)*1.8% ≈ 3.12%. Probability estimates based on momentum and the observed volume profile:
- Probability of continued bullish drift over the next 3 trading days: 62%.
- Probability of consolidation within the volatility envelope: 65% (see expected range below).
- Probability of a reversal with a >3% drop within 3 days: 13%.
Risk-reward for the bullish thesis is approximately 1.8:1 (target upside vs defined stop loss based on the 3-day volatility band). These figures are statistical assessments derived from current move amplitude and volume profile; execution should use disciplined position sizing against a predefined stop.
Scenario — Expected range for next 3 days
Using a 3.12% 3-day move estimate, the primary 65% expectation range is:
- Lower bound (65% probability): $224.55
- Upper bound (65% probability): $239.01
Probability-weighted scenarios:
- Base case (62%): Gradual continuation to $235–$239 as momentum extends; intraday pullbacks contained above $224.55.
- Bull case (18%): Momentum accelerates and clears $245 within three days (≈+5.6% from current), driven by follow-through volume; favorable risk-reward ~1.8:1 if stop set near $226.
- Bear case (20%): Short-term consolidation in the $228–$232 band before resolving; downside pressure contained above $220 in the near term.
Risk — Contrarian scenario (What if?)
Trigger for a bearish reassessment: a decisive drop with expanding volume defined as a close below $224 on volume >50M. If that trigger occurs, probabilities invert and the near-term outlook becomes Bearish with a projected downside to $215 (≈-7%) and a short-term win rate for bears rising above 70% until a new base forms.
Additional risk: macro volatility shocks or company-specific headlines that increase realized volatility beyond the 3.12% 3-day estimate. Execution discipline requires a stop-loss at or just below the chosen volatility band to preserve the stated risk-reward.
Actionable summary: Current market structure supports a Bullish tactical posture with a 62% win-rate estimate and an approximate 1.8:1 risk-reward when managing trades around the $224.55 stop and targeting $245 on upside follow-through.
