AMD Stalls at $221.47; Muted Move on 20.06M Shares Signals Short-Term Consolidation
Verdict: Neutral
Win Rate (range-bound, next 3 days): 68%
Key Factor: Price change -0.0677% with volume 20,062,016 indicates low conviction; 3-day 1σ range (~±4.36%) dominates short-term probability mass.
Analysis — Why it moved (Logic & Probability)
Price: $221.47 | Intraday change: -0.06768342% | Volume: 20,062,016.
Using an objective volatility model anchored to a 40% annualized volatility assumption (40% / √252 = 2.52% daily σ), the 3-day volatility is 2.52% × √3 = 4.36% (1σ). The observed intraday change of -0.0677% combined with substantial but non-elevated volume signals limited directional conviction. Under a Gaussian return approximation, 68% probability mass lies inside ±1σ (±4.36%) over the next three trading days, which maps to a high likelihood of short-term consolidation rather than an immediate breakout.
Probability summary (normal model, 3-day horizon):
- Probability price remains within ±4.36% (1σ): 68%.
- Probability price stays within ±8.72% (2σ): ~95%.
- Probability of a >5% move down in 3 days: ~12.6% (one-sided tail).
Scenario — Expected range for next 3 days
Calculation basis: current price $221.47; 3-day 1σ = 4.36%.
- 68% (1σ) expected range: $221.47 × (1 ± 0.0436) → $211.70 to $231.24.
- 95% (2σ) expected range: $221.47 × (1 ± 0.0872) → $202.10 to $240.84.
- Midpoint expectation: mean centered at $221.47; dispersion driven by volatility, not directional skew.
Risk — Contrarian scenario (What if?)
Bearish break scenario: A decisive break below ~5% from current ($≈$210.40) within three sessions has one-sided probability ~12.6%. If price breaks below that level on volume expansion above the current 20.06M, the short-term regime shifts to bearish with an expected extension toward the 8–9% lower tail (~$202 area) inside the 2σ band.
Bullish break scenario: A symmetric >5% upside move (above ≈ $232.54) within three sessions carries similar ~12.6% probability. A breakout above that level accompanied by volume above the current print would flip short-term odds in favor of continuation toward the 2σ upper band (~$240.84).
Risk management numeric guide:
- Neutral execution: avoid directional exposure or use tight risk controls. Typical trade plan for range play: entry near current price, stop ~5% below, target ~5% above → risk-reward ≈ 1:1.
- Breakout play (contrarian): require confirmation via volume > current 20.06M and a close outside the 1σ band; conditional trade R:R should target 2σ (~8.7%) with a stop at 1σ breach, yielding approximate R:R ≈ 2:1 on confirmed breakouts.
