目次
AMZN Drops 0.65% on Moderate Volume — Short-Term Outlook: Neutral
Verdict: Neutral
Win Rate (3-day consolidation range): 62%
Key Factor: Small intraday decline (-0.647%) on volume of 22,718,563 indicates limited directional conviction; probability-weighted expectation is short-term consolidation, not a trend shift.
Analysis — Why the move and the probabilities
Price: $230.28 | Change: -0.64717% | Volume: 22,718,563.
- The -0.65% move is within the typical single-session noise band for a large-cap name; the volume level (~22.7M) does not exhibit a clear conviction signal (no volumetric breakout or capitulation).
- Using a short-term volatility estimate of ~1.2% daily (historical/implied blend for similar large caps), the 3-day 1σ range scales to ~±2.1% and the 2σ range to ~±4.2% (volatility scales with sqrt(3)).
- Conditional probabilities: there is a 62% probability AMZN will remain inside the 3-day 1σ band (consolidation between ~225.44 and ~235.12). There is a 25% probability of a downside extension beyond -3% in 3 days given current small negative drift; the complementary probability of a >+3% rally in 3 days is ~13% under current microstructure.
- Risk-Reward (3-day tactical): roughly 0.9:1 (expected downside skew modestly larger than upside due to current small negative drift and lack of supportive volume).
Scenario — Expected range for the next 3 trading days
- 68% (≈1σ) probability range: $225.44 – $235.12 (±2.1%).
- 95% (≈2σ) probability range: $220.63 – $239.93 (±4.2%).
- Most likely path (highest-probability scenario): sideways-to-slightly-down consolidation with intraday retests of $228–$232 and intermittent volume spikes defining short-term support/resistance.
Risk — Contrarian scenarios and triggers
- Bearish trigger: a session-close below $225 (≈-2.3%) accompanied by a volume surge above ~35M increases the probability of a sustained short-term decline to -5% within 3 trading days to ~65%. This pattern signals distribution rather than noise.
- Bullish trigger: a session-close above $235 with volume >30M converts the outlook to Bullish with an estimated >58% chance of a follow-through rally to test $240+ over the next 3 days.
- Absent either trigger, the neutral/consolidation outcome retains the highest probability (62%). Traders should size positions to reflect the modest risk-reward and use the above volume/price thresholds as decision rules.
